2020 SEC East and West Division Odds: a Breakdown

May 8, 2020

It’s never too early to look ahead to championship weekend in early December. Let’s take a look at each SEC team’s odds to win their respective divisions and see if there’s any value in placing some money down on who will make the trip to Atlanta.

P.S. – I do not want to hear “if there’s even a football season”. We will simply not allow them to cancel the season. We will riot. We’ll be fine without the Pac 12 if they decide not to participate.

Moving on, here are the odds of each team to win their division (via DraftKings) starting with the East:

SEC East:

Florida (+125)

From a logical standpoint, the east is likely going to come down to either Florida or Georgia. Dan Mullen is coming off back to back seasons with 10+ wins and QB Kyle Trask was wildly impressive considering he hadn’t started a game since freshman year of HIGH SCHOOL. The key game for the Gators this season is not what you think, they play Kentucky week 2. Kentucky is good for a crazy upset every once in a while if they catch you sleeping. If they shit the bed in that game while they’re still figuring things out it’ll derail their season, but if not they have great odds to make it to the SEC title game.

They can afford to lose a couple games such as LSU and/or Georgia. Lucky for them, Georgia has to take a trip to Tuscaloosa week 3 and if they lose that (which they should) it will be a huge advantage for them early in the standings. I’m liking the plus money with the Gators for someone besides Georgia to represent the east for the first time in 4 years.

Georgia (-110)

Georgia lost a lot of offensive talent but reloads with the 2019 #1 recruiting class and Wake Forest grad transfer Jamie Newman replacing Jake Fromm at QB. As I previously mentioned, there’s one small problem for Georgia: THEY PLAY AT ALABAMA WEEK 3! That’s not a lot of time to figure things out with their fairly new, inexperienced team. However, that game is still going to be electric and live up to expectations.

That probable loss along, with another mid-season choke or two thanks to poor coaching decisions from Kirby not so Smart with his stupid fucking haircut and dumb visor and smug look always on his face, will be too much to overcome to catch Florida in the standings. I wouldn’t lay it with Georgia to win the east again.

Kentucky (+1200)

The football team who’s so historically rich with tradition that their field is named after a fucking grocery store is set for another season of mediocrity. It’s a real shame Mark Stoops didn’t bolt for Florida State so he could stop terrorizing the SEC east. SIKE! The positives for UK is that they get QB Terry Wilson back who they lost almost all of last year due to injury. They also have three running backs returning who all rushed for over 500 yards last season. However, it takes no expert to say they will not be winning the east. Actually, if I was forced against my will to make a bet this year where if one team won their division my family would be murdered in cold blood, I would pick Kentucky. Now, I could pick Vanderbilt or Arkansas but I’m no coward. Kentucky goes 6-6, 7-5 at best.

Mizzou (+2000)

Mizzou hires a new head coach Eli Drinkwitz after one successful 12-1 season at Appalachian State. Here’s the thing with this guy: he inherited 100% of his teams production from the previous season. He was the beneficiary of that program’s success that was mostly built by Scott Satterfield, who is now at Louisville. Interesting hire to say the least. He will take on the OC role as well and will work to replace a lot of open holes on the offense including the QB position, all while implementing an entirely new offense. Mizzou has a good ways to go before they think about becoming a contender.

South Carolina (+2000)

Will Muschamp is a sweaty, mouth-breathing idiot with anger problems. I’m still not sure what South Carolina was expecting when they hired him. “Hey, this guy completely pissed down his leg at Florida aka one of the easiest places to recruit in the country, maybe he’ll do better at a significantly less prestigious program!”

He did, however, make some big time changes on his coaching staff including bringing in Mike Bobo to run the offense. Remember that guy? The OC that put up huge offensive numbers with Matt Stafford and Aaron Murray at Georgia? He’s now back in the SEC with hopes to bring similar success with Alex Hilinski at SC. Muschamp also managed to put together a top 20 recruiting class and looks to develop some young talent at the skill positions this season as 4 of the returning 6 offensive players are linemen.

This team could be an intriguing long shot at +2000 if their young talent and can over-perform and pull off an upset or two like they did at Georgia last year, along with all the top east contenders falling apart. Also, keep an eye out for true freshman and top 5 RB prospect MarShawn Lloyd, he could become a pretty exciting player to watch.

Tennessee (+1200)

Not sure if you heard, but the Vols have the 4th longest active win streak in college football behind LSU, Air Force, and FAU. Haven’t lost since Bama. And if slap dick clown Jarrett Guarantano didn’t go rogue and fumble it at the 1 only to get returned 99 yards the other way for a touchdown and the egregious bias towards Bama by the refs and the SEC, the streak might even be longer but that’s not the point. Jeremy Pruitt and co. have some serious momentum entering the season and maybe, just maybe, is starting to figure things out. They are DEEP and experienced at several positions including offensive line, running back, and even defensive line. Key returns include top OT Trey Smith passing on a shot at the NFL and DT Emmit Gooden coming off a season long injury to anchor the D-Line. Not to mention Tennessee returns their coordinators on both sides of the ball for the first time since 2014.

The big question mark that looms is probably the most important one: Quarterback. There are currently 6 on the roster that are competing. Slap dick clown Jarrett Guarantano is likely to start out as QB1, and I have a sick feeling that he’s probably going to trot out there week 1 and play as shitty as he always has and start a revolving door of QBs for this season. We could expect to see 5 star true freshman QB Harrison Bailey at some point, but who knows when that’ll be.

So with all that said, just hear me out. I know you all are tired of the “This year is gonna be our year” Tennessee fans every year. I’m not saying that. I consider myself one of the more realistic and rational UT fans and they’re definitely still a few years out. BUT at +1200 to win the east they can bring some enticing value to the table. We know the east can become a cluster fuck in a hurry, and I mean 2020 has been nothing short of a blackout drunk year. Crazier things have happened. If you’re feeling ballsy, or your typical over-optimistic Vols fan, this bet could have some upside.

Vanderbilt (+10000)

Moving on. Fuckin nerds

SEC West:

Alabama (-200)

Same old story with Alabama. Lose a bunch of players to the NFL, reload with the best prospects in the country. DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle will headline the new receiving corps. Najee Harris returns as the star RB. On the defensive side, they will look to fill out their secondary as Trevon Diggs and Shyheim Carter are gone. They do get Dylan Moses back at LB, who missed all of last year with a knee injury. The quarterback situation will be interesting as Mac Jones, who filled in for Tua last season after he went down and was decent, Taulia Tagovailoa (guess whose brother that is), and 5 star top dual threat freshman Bryce Young will all be competing for the job. The challenge that the whole COVID-19 debacle presents for all teams with quarterback uncertainty is that there won’t be a lot of time to figure out who the true starter should be. My guess is that they’re going to start Mac Jones, who will do fine the first two games against Georgia State and USC, and then come the Georgia game he is going to be horrible and at halftime Nick Saban is going to say fuck this and put in Bryce Young who will proceed to shred the Georgia defense to pieces and the rest will be history. I expect Taulia Tagovailoa to hit the transfer portal by the end of the year.

Bama at -200 to win the west is a pretty fucking square bet, but betting on them is never a bad place to put your money. As I mentioned with the pandemic drastically reducing preparation time for the season, one person who I would expect to be fully prepared regardless of the amount of practice time they got, it would be Nicholas Saban. So we could go with the Tide to dominate like they normally do, but that’s no fun. Besides, if you are expecting anything in the year of our Lord 2020 to go as it’s supposed to at this point, you’re out of your damn mind.

Arkansas (+10000)

Arkansas replaces an absolute moronic coaching hire Chad Morris with, you guessed it, another moronic coaching hire. Enter Sam Pittman. Who? Never heard of him? You probably haven’t because he’s been coaching various offensive lines for the last 26 years and hasn’t sniffed a head coaching job since being the coach of HUTCHINSON COMMUNITY COLLEGE FOR 1 YEAR IN 1992!!! “But he’s a great recruiter” they say. “But the players love him” they say. Hmmm this sounds familiar doesn’t it? Long time O-Line coach? Great recruiter? Beloved by players? Oh yeah, that lousy buffoon Matt Luke that was running Ole Miss for the last 3 years and just got canned. How’d that work out for them? Back to O line coach where he belongs, and this guy will be back there too pretty soon.

I can’t wait to watch this train wreck. Arkansas is about to be an even bigger joke than they have been. Forget winning the west. Hell, forget winning a conference game. We need all hands on deck for week 1 boys we got Nevada! Charleston Southern rolls into town week 5, might not be an easy one either. Whoever the athletic directer is that’s making these hiring decisions needs to be strapped to a rocket and fired directly into the sun or exiled to a lifetime of isolation in the frozen tundra of Siberia. Woo pig sooie

Auburn (+500)

Gus Malzahn is like a box of chocolates: you never know what you’re gonna get. One year he’s a mastermind, scheming up unstoppable offenses. The next year he’s going 7-5 blowing double digit 4th quarter leads at home. Bo Nix looks like he could be the real deal. Aside from some classic freshman growing pains, he displayed some real play-making ability. However, he isn’t the true running threat that Malzahn does so well with. Recently fired Arkansas head coach Chad Morris comes in to be the OC and mentor Bo Nix. Auburn brings in a top 10 recruiting class to try and fill the void of their absolute juggernaut of a defensive line from last season. They bring back their top 3 wide outs and have a solid group in the backfield.

Auburn’s toughest stretches of the season come in pairs: they play at Georgia oddly early in the season followed by A&M at home, and to finish the season they host LSU and then go to Bryant Denny to face off in the Iron Bowl. If they can just split each of those pairs of games, they’ll be in great shape. Aside from those, their schedule is very manageable. It could be a possibility that the Iron Bowl will yet again decide who wins the west. With that being said, I think Auburn at +500 is very well worth a shot. Then if the above scenario plays out, you even have the chance to hedge your bet with Bama if you get cold feet.

LSU (+400)

Ah yes the defending national champs. There’s going to be a lot of new faces on the field this year for the bayou Bengals. Here’s a wild fucking stat for you: LSU had every single draft eligible player on offense end up on an NFL roster either being drafted or signed. They also became the first team in history to have a QB, WR, and RB all drafted in the first round. 2000 Miami didn’t do that. 2005 USC didn’t do that. None of the great Alabama teams ever did that. Absolutely ridiculous. Aside from all that lost production, they lose their brilliant young co-offensive coordinator to the NFL, and their experienced defensive coordinator Dave Aranda who took the new head coaching job at Baylor. Let’s look at what they will have: Bo Pelini is coming back to coach the defense and looks to repeat his previous success there that delivered a top 3 defense each year he was there and a BCS National Championship in 2008. QB Myles Brennan, who appeared in a few blowouts last year, will have likely 2021 first rounder Ja’Marr Chase and the highly talented Terrace Marshall Jr. to throw the ball to.

Honestly, this might be my least favorite of all the reasonable options. Defending national champs who basically lost their entire team at +400. You smell that folks? That’s recency bias. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid. The inexperience along with the brutal schedule is not a recipe for success. Their last 4 games are: vs Bama, vs South Carolina, @ Auburn, @ A&M. Good luck with that. This year we’ll find out if Coach O is here to stay, or if he was a one hit wonder. Coach O might be one of my favorite humans, and although he’s had great success recruiting and brings in the #4 overall class I don’t think he’ll be able to overcome last years losses at least this year.

Mississippi State (+1600)

Mike Leach and his imaginary pirate crew set sail to navigate the seven seas of the southeastern conference. I think it’s safe to say everyone in the SEC is beyond excited to have this brilliant lunatic in the conference now. The Egg Bowl with him and Lane Kiffin is going to be the best thing to happen in the state of Mississippi since — actually nothing that great has ever happened in Mississippi.

Mississippi State has a fairly easy first half of the season, which could build up some hype thinking they’re better than they actually are and that Mike Leach has put the conference on notice. Then they play the real teams. News flash for Mike Leach: you have to play defense in the SEC. Although I do expect him to make them exciting enough to be able to tolerate listening to those shitty cowbells while watching them on TV.

Ole Miss (+2500)

Lane Kiffin returns to the SEC. We all knew it was only a matter of time. Who else would have thought Lane Kiffin would only last 3 years into this 10 year extension at FAU? This being the same guy who bolted for USC after just 1 year coaching at Tennessee, certainly not me. He bounces around teams like he bounces around rich college girls with daddy issues. Look out Oxford, Joey Freshwater is in the house. There will be plenty of girls with daddy issues to keep him busy down there let me tell you right now. You think that played a role in this career decision? You can bet your fucking ass it did.

Ole Miss will not have to worry much about replacing talent mainly because they didn’t have any. They were the ONLY team in the SEC that didn’t have a player drafted. Nice job Matt Luke you lousy buffoon. If you wanted, you could spin that into having experience. QB John Rhys Plumlee showed potential last year, especially with his mobility. With a little tweaking from Lane Kiffin they could pose a threat on offense. Their schedule is tough, they’ve got a lot to figure out, but Kiffin could have them looking like the Hugh Freeze days in a few years. Just don’t get caught at any strip clubs.

Texas A&M (+400)

Remember when Texas A&M signed Jimbo Fisher to a 10 year $75 million dollar contract in 2018? A few years in and it’s looking like they were on the wrong end of the bargain. They’ve been decent, but not 10 year $75 million decent. Although they came close to an upset over #2 and future national champ Clemson in 2018, but they just haven’t been able to win the big games. Now I know I could be speaking a little too soon. We can’t ignore the fact that they played 19 true freshman last year who are all returning, 17 returning starters, and yet another top 10 recruiting class.

Here’s my thing with Texas A&M: their QB Kellen Mond STINKS. He is garbage. I don’t care what you say. They could very well be on the verge of getting really good, but they won’t get all the way over the hump with him calling the shots. He mentioned in an ESPN article that the Aggies “were on the verge of making a leap in 2020 like LSU did last season”. Yeah okay buddy. You couldn’t hit a fucking bear in the ass with a bass fiddle if your life depended on it. Let me know when that changes. If you want a sleeper in the west and don’t feel comfortable with Auburn, this could be your choice though. For me personally, I’m OUT on A&M as long as Kellen Mond is their QB.

In Summary:

East

Value Pick – Florida

Longshot picks – South Carolina, Tennessee

West

Value pick – Auburn

Less advised value pick – A&M

Gun to my head SEC Championship Prediction

Alabama vs. Florida

We will look to capitalize on some opportunities during the season as the odds change.